Update Dec 14, 2024: Added Newsletter Email Archive at End of Post.
Exchange Rates Introduction
Recently, I have had been lucky enough to go travelling through some countries in Europe and paying for things in a different currency gets one thinking about economics, naturally. To start of my discussion I’m going to mention my visit to Edinburgh because last time I was in the UK it was July of 2022 and I noticed that the exchange rate was significantly different than it is today in September 2024. Back in 2022 the exchange rate was about 1.5 CAD to 1 GBP. This time it was closer to 1.8 CAD to 1 GBP. Basically, it got more expensive for me, but if you think about this on a surface level, currency rates are somewhat of a silly thing. I haven’t changed much, the amount of money that I make hasn’t changed much. On an individual level it’s kind of weird that at different points in time if you want to go and travel, the value of the money you make in your home country can decide the types of things that you can do and how expensive your vacation will be. With so many countries accepting your credit card it makes exchange rates feel even more fake. For example, I was in Denmark and I didn’t see a single Danish Kroner. I couldn’t tell you what that currency looks like, it didn’t even occur to me to exchange money before I went over there because everyone accepts cards. When money is digital it’s somewhat funny to me that there’s different “currencies” at all, it’s just numbers on a screen.
Why Currencies Strengthen or Weaken
Getting past the fact that digital payments are a somewhat funny concept, let’s talk about how the strength of your currency is determined. The different currencies and exchange rates are mostly based on your home countries economy. But this encompasses many things. Employment rates, inflation, Gross National Product, health of trading partners, imports/exports, government policies, etc. All currencies are technically free markets, this means that the market for your countries currency could hypothetically react to a bad piece of news and the currency could temporarily strengthen or weaken, sometimes significantly, on a single news story. Often, there is also a comparison going on, generally the benchmark is the United States, the European Union and various other large economies which are the benchmarks for healthy economies which other currencies are compared against. You may notice in your home country that there is inflation or it’s harder to find a job for a large part of the population, or foreign governments are not buying your governments bonds because the interest rate they are paying is lower than a competitors government. There are a lot of economic dynamics that can determine the value of your currency compared to the currency of another country.
Example of Bad News Affecting Exchange Rates
Let’s take the time that I went to the UK in 2022, arguably, it was a great time to travel to the UK because around that time the country was having governmental problems and their prime minister at the time was ousted, then an interim prime minister was given power, proceeded to break everything by implementing policies everyone agreed were horrible, then was ousted in a matter or weeks or months, all I remember was that a piece of lettuce lasted longer than the PM. These terrible policy decisions led to a loss of confidence in the UK, not quite as crazy as Brexit was, but this period of instability meant that the British Pound took a nice little fall, it was temporary, but the recovery wasn’t immediate. At that time buying British pounds from a foreign exchange perspective would have been a great time to do so since the country itself is largely stable, but this was just a temporary moment of instability. Now, one could argue, that we are getting closer to what the historical exchange rate was. I remember prior to Brexit the British pound was closer to 2.1 CAD to 1 GBP. There’s no saying if it will ever return to that value since Brexit is quite a permanent decision. But we can look towards other interesting economic indicators to get an idea of what exchange rates might look like in the future.
Canada’s Dollar Will Weaken in 2025
For Canada, unfortunately, the Canadian dollar is anticipated to weaken a little bit more in the coming year 2025, which means travel will become more expensive, and arguably makes now a good time to buy foreign currencies such as the USD or the GBP. So why is the Canadian dollar predicted to be weaker? There are a few reasons. Canada is beginning to see quite a jump up in the unemployment rate, people are continuing to lose jobs and new jobs are hard to find. Fewer jobs means fewer people spending money, less demand for goods, less goods produced, this slowing becomes a cycle and our economy “slows”. Since employees are basically business investment, and business investment leads to production or exports/imports. If there is less business investment, and fewer people working, it generally follows that the GDP or GNP of Canada will decline. Another reason this is problematic for Canada is because in the US the GDP has actually been climbing and they are our largest trading partner, so by comparison, we are doing worse, and our currency suffers. Additionally, Canada still has a largely resource based economy, with the largest one being Oil, and Oil prices have not been as strong in recent months, you may see this as a good thing since it’s cheaper to buy gas at home, but it does cause our currency to suffer somewhat. All of these problems, and inflation finally coming down led to the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy.
Interest Rates, Bonds, and Currencies
Canada was notably the first G10 nation to cut rates. The country has now cut rates three times with another rate cut anticipated before the end of the year. Cutting interest rates means it should in theory be easier for businesses to get loans and invest back into producing goods and get consumers spending again since their loans will also be cheaper, this may also increase housing activity in Canada, which is also a huge part of the economy. But in the interim, our currency will likely suffer while we try to increase output because fewer people will want to purchase Canadian government bonds since the Fed in the United States has yet to cut their rates, making their bonds a more attractive place for people to leave their money. When the government sells bonds, it takes money out of circulation, meaning there are fewer dollars, which means less inflation, less inflation usually leads to a stronger currency. We did somewhat benefit from this since our inflation wasn’t as high as the United States during covid so we had a stronger currency for a while, but the US continues to surprise with their economic output, the machine continues to operate well, while Canada’s is suffering a bit at least from an economics point of view.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Canadians can expect travel to become a bit more expensive over the coming year or two, with the future TBD. I think we need to be pushing to improve investment in technology companies, so much of the world relies on tech and our only claim to fame is Shopify. Economics are a complex problem, and tech won’t solve all of our issues, but we do need to find a way to benefit from the knowledge that we have in the country, because we also suffer from a pretty significant brain drain, the best and highest paying jobs are in the US for our smartest students, so most of them will naturally decide to go there. The US is a great country if you have lots of money and good benefits, and if something goes wrong while they are there, they can always come back, it’s sort of a win-lose for Canadians and Canada. The best way for a Canadian to start a tech company is to move to California, at least last time I checked, so that needs some fixing. This will be a bit of a shorter post because I’m technically on vacation. Currently, I’m sitting outside a coffee shop called Przystanek Kawa in the wonderful Dutch inspired old town square of Gdańsk, Poland (bit of a mouthful, but the city is beautiful), and I’m going to get back to being a tourist and enjoy the sights. I’ll be in Warsaw tomorrow, then it’s off to Lauterbrunnen before returning home (sadly). I will say this solo travel thing does sort of get old quickly (this is only day 2 of 7 days solo) especially when you’re in a place where you aren’t speaking your first language, you can only see so many museums, castles, and church’s before it all starts to feel the same, and hostels have their own quirks and problems, definitely have some stories for another time about rough roommates. Anyway, it’s easy to complain, but I’m extremely happy and lucky that I can do this kind of travel even if it’s not high class luxury travel, I’m quite enjoying the experience and continue to love each new city I go to. That’s all for now, see you in Canada!
Newsletter #21: Exchange Rates in A Digital Economy, August Real Estate Stats
This Weeks Blog Post:
Why Exchange Rates Vary, Canada’s Weakening Dollar:
- How exchange rates are determined
- Why exchange rates are somewhat strange
- Travel experiences and how it gets me thinking about different currencies
Read the full article here: https://oliverfoote.ca/why-exchange-rates-vary-canadas-weakening-dollar/
*Bank of Canada Cuts Rate 0.25%, now sits at 4.25%. – Sept 4, 2024
TRREB August Market Stats Summary:
- September has arrived, marking the near end of summer with kids heading back to school and holidays wrapping up. Seasonally August tends to be a slower month of the year when it comes to residential real estate sales. The Greater Toronto Area home sales were down on a year over-year basis with the region’s housing market remaining well-supplied in August. Currently there are approximately 4.5 months of inventory, putting us in what is referred to as a Buyers Market.
- The Bank of Canada announced a further rate cut on September 4th which will lead to improvement in affordability. Buyers today are more sensitive than ever to changes in borrowing costs as they pay close attention to what their monthly mortgage payment could be. As mortgage rates continue to trend lower this year and next, we should experience an uptick in buying activity, including in the condo market.
- There were 4975 home sales reported by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board(TRREB) throughout the month of August 2024 – down by 5.3% compared to 5,251 sales reported in August 2023.
- Inventory of all home types available for sale were up 46% compared to August of last year, there are currently 22,653 properties for sale. With this jump in inventory you would expect downward pressure on pricing, however, prices remained flat over August 2023 influenced by lowering interest rates and the continued strong demand to live in the Greater Toronto Area. The average selling price was down only 0.7% compared to August 2023 to $1,074,425.
- TRREB’s Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer stated that as borrowing costs trend lower over the next year-and-a-half, home buyers will initially benefit from both lower monthly mortgage payments and lower home prices. Even as demand picks up, especially in 2025, it will take time for the inventory of listings to be absorbed. Ample choice in the market will help keep price growth moderate for the foreseeable future.
Stock Market:
- The Fed will cut rates soon, this is already priced into the market, but it’s likely to cause a bit of a temporary happy bump as money becomes a bit cheaper. Getting housing activity moving again will be a sign of a more affordable rate environment as many people in the US do not want to exchange a 30 year fixed mortgage at 2 or 3 percent for a more expensive one at 6 or 7 percent.
Market Performance as of Monday September 16, 2024:
S&P 500: 5,616.19 (+18.41% YTD)
NASDAQ: 17,559.27 (+18.92% YTD)
S&P/TSX Composite: 23,584.56 (+13.00% YTD)
Canada CPI Inflation July 2024: 2.5% (0.2% Decrease from June 2024)
Current BoC Benchmark Interest Rate: 4.25% (0.25% Decrease on Sept 4, 2024) Unemployment Rate June 2024: 6.4% (0.2% Increase from May 2023)
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