Get Lazy & Build Relationships

Update Dec 14, 2024: Added Newsletter Email Archive at End of Post.

I was having a discussion today with my co-workers and we were (very professionally, might I add) complaining about all the times people have asked us to do something that should have been understood to be the other (third party) persons responsibility. I recently had multiple experiences where I was roped into doing someone’s work for them. A good example of this is that twice in the last month I would probably have never received my a commission cheque if I hadn’t followed up and insistently asked to get paid (weeks after I was supposed to, might I add). So all of these things just stacked up and got me thinking. If there are so many people being so lazy out there and making good living wages just doing the bare minimum. Making other people do the work for them, am I missing something? Should I be more lazy? Another word for this type of lazy would be “delegating”, but I’m not sure where the lines are between, favours, delegation, just plain lazy. So I want to unpack this a bit and talk about what lines I think are reasonable and how to better delegate work if that is a part of your job. Getting people to do things is never easy.

Delegation, the thing that all managers have to do and will become very familiar with in their day-to-day work life. If you are trying to get someone to do something. What is the best way to do it? Well for starters, generally speaking, paying someone to do tasks is a good motivator. I work 100% for commission, so when I’m asked to do something I’ll take a bit more convincing, because if I can’t draw a line from point A to point B, and I find I’m quite generous with my time and my lines, the motivation to get that thing done just sometimes isn’t there, especially if I feel like I’m just handing out favours left and right. But I have come to realize that there’s a lot more to working on a team, even if it’s commission only, than just “how will this help me get paid.” It’s important to see the bigger picture, spend time planning for future business, and in general building good relationships with the people you work with so if you do need a favour they’ll be more willing to oblige. It always helps if there’s a trade of some kind. For example, I recently moved to Toronto and borrowed a truck from my company and proceeded to lose the gas cap (tired brain, left it as the gas station). In exchange for using the truck and the lost gas cap, I helped de-stage a few homes. Which to me was a decent enough trade to motivate me to be there.

If you have people who are working for a salary, you might be thinking, “well I’m paying them, they should just do whatever I tell them to do.” This is partially correct, but employees can sometimes box themselves in and think in the mindset of, “I was hired to do a certain thing for you, and anything outside of that is someone else’s job, so I won’t do it.” This again, is where good old trading comes in, people are selfish. Blame self-preservation. But even generous people can have a limit on how much “unrelated to their work BS” they’re willing to put up with. Therefore, if you can make it extremely clear, what someone will be getting or has already gotten, in exchange for them doing something that might not be in the job description for you, it becomes a lot easier to get them to do that thing. I would largely frown upon using a power imbalance to your advantage here, or threats, that’s a great way to build a culture where no one trusts anyone else. Think long term, be polite, and be helpful to others and they’ll do the same for you. There’s also something called building goodwill, some people will take advantage of it, but if you’re in a bit of a lower position, or you’re just starting out on something, you may find it a good idea to put up with a bit more BS. Because when you need a favour from someone higher up, they’ll be much more wiling to help you out, obviously safety first, don’t do anything unreasonable. 

I’ll be honest, I’m a complete novice at this organizational behavior thing, I took one course in university about it, and it didn’t involve much psychology. More macro scale how companies behave, all of what I’ve written so far mainly comes from observations, chatting with others, and personal experiences working. On an individual level it’s much more important to have frank conversations with people about what they are thinking and how they are feeling about their work. Sometimes you may just be asking someone to do something that they are clueless about and they might not be willing to admit it because of their ego. Everyone can fall into little traps like this and it’s important to keep good relationships, ask people how they’re doing, and try to see the human behind the work.

I’m going to move on to somewhat of a tangent right now. But something that I find irritating when it comes to employment, is that people teach good management principles that are something along the lines of “help people, help them fail fast, people make mistakes and sometimes you have to fix them.” Some companies are just completely cutthroat and if you underperform their metrics it’s game over, but most will have some amount of leniency. The part that bothers me is when they’re hiring for an entry level position and require 5 years of experience, and during the interview seems like you’re expected to know how to do the job at their company already using their very specific software’s and systems that they’ve built internally. Let’s not even get into the online application portal hiring process. For the love of God, don’t spend a minute online until you know someone. You’re better off spending just an hour a day talking with people even loosely in the field your interested in vs. spending 4 hrs a day applying to jobs on portals where no one will ever read your resume. Give yourself a chance. Yes in the era of the internet and social media, I’m telling you the best way to get a job is talk to people. Interesting how that hasn’t changed.

Back to the regularly scheduled programming. So how do you harness your inner lazy to get more things done, and how do you stand up for yourself and your own productivity and time. Prioritizing is very important, you want to make sure you know what you are doing, and when you are doing it, so if someone asks you “hey can you do this thing for me,” you do not have to default to saying yes. I don’t want to sound like I’m telling you as an employee to NOT do what you’re being told to do, but I do want you to take responsibility for your own time. I think if you’re self employed this is extra important, health and fitness are important aspects of performing at your best, so schedule in that time, an appointment with yourself if you will. I now have a bit of a wonky schedule and work on specific days in Toronto and Mississauga. So if I’m asked to do something in the city on the day which I’m not available there “I’m all booked up.” Even if I end up not having much else to do in the other city on that particular day. Setting boundaries and lines for yourself is important. But it is also very important to be flexible to good opportunities when they present themselves. There’s a balance that needs to be walked, and depending on your job you may have more flexibility for one type of thing and less flexibility for another, you have to learn where it is important to move your schedule around and where it can wait.

By the same token, you’ll be surprised how many people are willing to help you simply if you’ve been helpful to them or you are a nice person. Just asking someone to do something will often result in them obliging even if it’s a slight inconvenience, no one wants to be perceived as unhelpful. Obviously, this can be taken advantage of and I don’t recommend doing so. But if it’s nothing too crazy, maybe you’re just asking for 5 minutes of advice, or you just want to learn something. Many people, even people who’s time costs more than your annual salary, are willing to oblige and help someone out if they’re asked nicely.

For example, if I see someone marketing a home in a way that I haven’t considered before, I’ll just give them a quick call and ask how they did it, if they’re a person with a collaborative attitude who wants everyone to do better, they’ll have no problem telling me exactly what they did. Complimenting someone on something they’ve done that you liked, and then asking for advice on how you can do it yourself, is probably the easiest way to get someone talking and willing to help. Remember, when building relationships it’s not about yourself, the more questions you are asking the other person about themselves, the more engaging they’ll find the conversation. People are extremely willing to help out if you take a genuine and personal interest in them and not necessarily in their work. Usually, work is just a small part of a person’s bigger life and getting to know not just their work but other things about them as a person can be very helpful in asking for favours and building good relationships in general. Like anything practice makes perfect when it comes to building relationships, start small, get a bit outside your comfort zone, and keep trying.

That’s all for now, this is a bit of a shorter one, had a big move to the big city recently (I smell opportunity!) and haven’t had much time to pump this out. But hopefully you are able to take a few things away from this and find that people are often more than willing to help out, as long as you are polite and come across and helpful yourself, and take an interest in the person behind the thing they do.

Keep investing,

-Oliver

Newsletter Email Archive Sent: Dec 10, 2024:

Newsletter #27: How Being Lazy Can Help, Interest Rate Improvements, 2025 Market Acceleration

This Weeks Blog Post:

Get Lazy & Build Relationships:

  • Talking about how to get other people do (politely) do what you want them to do
  • Management strategies for employees
  • Learning to build relationships with people instead of wasting time in front of your computer

Read the full article here: https://oliverfoote.ca/get-lazy-build-relationships/

Trreb Market Stats Nov 2024:

  • Winter is slowly moving in, bring on the winter sports! In sharing some warmer news the Greater Toronto Area home sales increased strongly on a year-over-year basis in November. Many buyers benefitted from more affordable market conditions brought about by lower borrowing costs. The number of new listings were also up compared to November 2023 but by a much lesser annual rate. This is resulting in tighter market conditions and contributing to overall average price growth compared to last year.  With the momentum we are experiencing I’m expecting a bit of a slow but steady market recovery in 2025. 
  • There were 5,875 home sales through November, up by 40.1% compared to 4,194 sales reported in November 2023. Total active listings on the MLS® System amounted to 21,818, up by 30.2% year over year. November sales were up month-over-month compared to October. The average selling price was up by 2.6% compared to November 2023 to $1,106,050 in the GTA overall.
  • Toronto’s Regional Real Estate Board Chief Market Analyst, Jason Mercer, recently stated that on a seasonally adjusted basis, the average selling price edged slightly lower compared to October. Although market conditions have tightened, particularly for single-family homes, the detached home market in particular experienced average annual price growth above the rate of inflation, particularly in the City of Toronto. However, the condominium apartment market continues to experience lower average selling prices compared to a year ago. Condo buyers are benefitting from a lot of choice, giving them negotiating power. This will attract renter households into homeownership as borrowing costs trend lower in the months ahead.  
  • I wish you and your family a fantastic holiday season and I look forward to connecting with you very soon. Happy Holidays!! 

Other News:

  • It appears that despite the proposed tariffs from our neighbors to the south, the Bank of Canada may still be on track to cut interest rates tomorrow (Dec 11, 2024), with some predictions anticipating another 0.5% cut, looking at 5 year bond yields after a bit of a pop post election they have begun to trend back down to the lows we saw in October 2024. If this trend continues going into the holidays and the New Year, we can expect buyers to be pleasantly surprised by how much their purchasing power on a fixed mortgage has improved.

Above chart from marketwatch.com

  • On top of this a slew of NEW mortgage rules will be coming into place on Dec 15, 2024 (you can learn about them at my YouTube presentation here: https://youtu.be/8XyHEV1c7R4) which for first time buyers will instantly provide them with an improvement to their purchasing power as well.
  • You can see below the difference that a 1% change in interest rates makes to the potential mortgage amount someone can afford on the same 3200 budget.

With low-down payment mortgages being allowed up to 1.5 million dollars this also will improve affordability in some slightly more expensive markets and bring a wider array of potential buyers to those homes.

Above chart made by yours truly.

Stock Market Performance as of Tuesday Dec 10, 2024:

S&P 500: 6,044.60 (+27.44% YTD)
NASDAQ: 19,687.07 (+33.33% YTD)
S&P/TSX Composite: 25,565.73 (+22.49% YTD)

Macroeconomics Statistics:

Canada’s CPI Inflation Oct 2024: 2.0% (0.0% Change from Sept 2024)
Current BoC Benchmark Interest Rate: 3.75% (0.5% Decrease on Oct 23, 2024, next decision: Dec 11, 2024)
Unemployment Rate November 2024: 6.5% (0.1% Decrease from Sept 2024)

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) Real Estate Stats – November 2024:

November 2024 Average Selling Price All Home Types: $1,106,050
Y-o-Y (comparing Novembers) % Change in Average Selling Price: +2.6%

YTD Number of MLS Sales: 64,277
YTD % Change in MLS Sales (compared to this time last year): +2.7%

Y-o-Y (comparing Novembers) % Change in MLS Sales: +40.1%
Number of MLS Sales in November: 5,875
Y-o-Y (comparing Novembers) % Change in Active Listings: +30.2%
Number of Active Listings in November: 21,818

Inventory Available: 3.71 Months (Increase from 3.5 Months in November 2024)

Market Type: Buyers Market

Thanks for reading and have a great week! -Oliver Foote

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Investing $100,000 in Stocks vs. Real Estate 25 Years Ago

Update Dec 14, 2024: Added Newsletter Email Archive at End of Post.

This thought experiment has been floating around in my big ol’ brain for a little while now, and I was curious what the results would be. So this post is going to be a bit of a back-test of investing in stocks (index fund) vs. real estate (homeownership as an investment). I’m going to have to make a few assumptions, but I’m going to try and make them as realistic as possible for the sake of this post. Before jumping into the thought experiment I want to point out and outline a principle that is sometimes lost in the numbers when people are comparing real estate to other investments like stocks. 

Real estate is an insanely leveraged investment. Why? What does that mean? I didn’t know we’d be talking about Physics? Allow me to explain. Leverage in it’s most basic form is borrowing money from one person, to then turn around and invest. For example you might leverage 2x the money you have available to you. In stock terms this means that if your investment goes up 100% (doubles), you’ve made a 300% return (2x leverage + 2x return – 1x original investment). Let’s use real numbers to make this make more sense. Let’s say you have $100,000, you then go to the bank and say “hey, I have a great investment idea, my credit is great, will you lend me $100,000?” They say, “sure, no problem, but we’ll charge you interest.” So you take your now $200,000 and invest it (really it’s just $100,000 + $100,000 loaned against that). Your investment doubles. You now have $400,000 in a bank account. If you had only invested your $100,000, unleveraged, and your investment doubled, you’d have $200,000. Instead you used leverage and now you’ve made $200,000 instead of $100,000 by using 2 to 1 leverage (minus fees and interest). Let’s say for the sake of argument your fees and interest came out to $50,000 over the course of the investment, you pay back $150,000 to the bank. You still come out ahead with $150,000 profit + your original $100,000. More than double the initial amount, that’s the power of leverage.

HOWEVER, if your investment falls by 50%, you lose everything. How? Well you need to have a way to repay the bank, so the money you have is collateral for their loan. If your investment in stocks drops by 50% you’ll have $100,000 in your account, which is exactly enough to repay the bank. So you’ll get “margin called” which is when the bank sells stocks on your behalf and will pay back their loan. Just like that you go from $100,000 to nothing. So leverage has 2 sides, and the downside risk can be quite large and scary which is why most people should never play with leverage. Yes you can make astronomical returns, but you can go broke just as quickly. So… Real Estate, the thing we all live in, is leveraged 5 to 1… Let’s talk about it.

After what I’ve just told you about how leverage can destroy you’re investment, you’re probably thinking to yourself, “surely, no bank would be crazy enough to lend more than 2x or 3x to a VERY smart investor,” well do I have news for you. Every day, people are going out there, going to their banks and being provided a loan for 5x-20x the money they plan to spend on their home. How does that make any sense? Well, apparently, we’ve all decided that the most stable asset in existence is land, and homes. Every bank and government has decided collectively that homeownership is a right of sorts and it has resulting in lending policies that allow for this type of leverage. If you get into “low down payment” mortgages it gets even more crazy.

So lets take a look at an example. You have $100,000 that you want to spend on a home. About $10,000 of that will go to land transfer tax, lawyer fees, home inspections etc. So your investment after cost of doing business is closer to $90,000. Lets create 2 scenarios, both will factor in a renter investing in stocks vs. equivalent homeowner. I’ll try to provide actual examples of houses and rents too. A point that I think is important to make here is that past performance is never an indicator of future results, that goes for stocks and the housing market and there are a lot of things that influence both these markets in a big way, this is a historical example, and may not pan out exactly the same way in the future. But I hope it is illustrative.

Scenario 1: 20% Down Payment (5 to 1 leverage)

In 1999 $90,000 as a 20% down payment means that you can buy $450,000 worth of home. What does that get you?

In one of Mississauga’s nicer neighborhoods Lorne Park, that would get you a 4 bed, 3-4 bath, 2000-2500 sq. ft. home, 2 car garage, possibly with a pool.

A 5-year fixed mortgage rate would have been around 7.5% at the time.

Your monthly mortgage payment would be approximately $2600 per month, add in your other home expenses and let’s say $3000 per month.

Now, how much would a similar home cost to rent at the time?

I’m seeing around $2300-2500/month, so let’s call it $2500 after expenses again.

$500 less per month to rent.

Now that the stage is set, let’s do some math shall we.

Let’s assume the renter family’s put their initial $100,000 into an S&P 500 index fund and the $500 per month in savings goes into this same fund, so $6000 per year extra. Meanwhile, the other family’s savings gets dumped completely into home and mortgage we’ll also say that both families start in January of 1999 and the extra $6000 is added at the start of each year. We’ll just say that both families succumb to lifestyle inflation with the extra income over the years so their numbers don’t change. What happens?

Renter family:

YearS&P 500 ROI Added dollars ($)Portfolio Value ($)
199919.53%6,000126,701
2000-10.14%6,000119,245
2001-13.04%6,000108,913
2002-23.37%6,00088,058
200326.38%6,000118,871
20048.99%6,000136,096
20053.00%6,000146,359
200613.62%6,000173,111
20073.53%6,000185,433
2008-38.49%6,000117,750
200923.45%6,000152,770
201012.78%6,000179,061
20110.00%6,000185,061
201213.41%6,000216,682
201329.60%6,000288,596
201411.39%6,000328,151
2015-0.37%6,000332,915
20169.54%6,000371,247
201719.42%6,000450,509
2018-6.24%6,000428,023
201928.88%6,000559,368
202016.62%6,000659,333
202126.89%6,000844,241
2022-19.44%6,000684,954
202324.23%6,000858,372

Owner family by 2023: Home value $1,650,000-$1,750,000, mortgage paid off.

The average housing price growth in this time period was around 10% per year for detached homes. I tried to find actual houses on the market that have recently sold as a more true indicator of value rather than just computing the average. As you can see, due to the leverage that mortgages allowed you are now twice as wealthy as the person who invested in stocks, you own the home rent free, and you can accelerate your own savings on top of owning this now expensive home and outpace the stock investor even more. Meanwhile, the other family’s rent and expenses will have gone up and they may have had to move a few times because of owners selling homes. Stability is not quite the same, and while $800,000 is an impressive sum of money, it’s still half as much as the homeowner, even with historically higher growth in stocks than average.

What about the future of housing?

People are predicting that the next decade will not see the same returns on housing as the last two decades, but having a home even as an investment rather than leaving money in stocks can mean that while a tenant is paying down your mortgage for you, there will be money left over for you to continue investing in stocks, rinse and repeat, buy more homes get more tenants. Yes it is somewhat clinical, but the more people you have building your home equity, the more “streams” of income you will eventually have when all those homes are paid off, or you just sell them for a ton of money. Every home is a vehicle to 5x or more leverage, you’re controlling a $450,000 asset in our example with only $90,000. Yes you do have to pay interest and you’re “burning” a lot of money in interest every year, but even after all those fees, you’ve done well! I’m again stressing that past does not equal future. Who knows what the future holds! But historically, real estate has been the way to go, and every wealthy person I’ve ever met has some amount of holdings in real estate or land. Because they aren’t making any more of it!

Now there are a million ways to invest in real estate and make a return on investment much quicker than this believe it or not. One of those ways would be purchasing a home in need of some repair and then selling it, what people call “sweat equity” or “forced appreciation”, making it worth more to the market. This is more risk, but in theory more reward. But I’m more of a believer in the long game and just trying to acquire as many beans as possible so my pile of beans can be huge.

Let’s move onto scenario 2.

Scenario 2: 5% Down Payment (20 to 1 leverage)

Here’s a bit of a history lesson for you. The 5% down payment rule came into effect around 1995, and we proceeded to see two decades of the highest appreciation rates in the history of the GTA Real Estate Market. I’m not going to talk too much about government policies and what could have been different, maybe some other time, for now we’ll just accept this as it is. So in the grand year of 1999 before the dot com bubble, we can now leverage our money 20x! Woohoo! (probably).

The rules at the time were 5% up to 500,000 then 10% down up to $1 million. So if you buy a $999,999 house, your down payment is 7.5%, so not quite 20x leverage. Let’s say that you buy a $999,999 house in this scenario with 7.5% down, or $74,999 and you burn the other $25,000 on fees and mortgage insurance.

This budget, allows us to buy a home under $1,000,000 on the prestigious Mississauga Rd. north of the QEW. 4-5 Bed 8 Bath, over 5000 sq ft. Probably what we’d call a McMansion nowadays. In 2023 this caliber of home sold for $3.8 Million to $4.0 Million. Your monthly mortgage payments on this at 7.5% interest would be around $7,000 a month with property tax and everything else lets call it $9,000 a month. From what I can see online to rent a similar property would have been around $5000 a month call it $6000 after other expenses. Which is $3000 savings per month, or $36,000 per year. So lets take a look at this $100,000 stock investment, this time with $36,000 getting added per year.

YearS&P 500 ROIAdded dollars ($)Portfolio Value ($)
199919.53%36,000162,560
2000-10.14%36,000178,426
2001-13.04%36,000186,465
2002-23.37%36,000170,475
200326.38%36,000260,943
20048.99%36,000323,638
20053.00%36,000370,427
200613.62%36,000461,783
20073.53%36,000515,355
2008-38.49%36,000339,138
200923.45%36,000463,108
201012.78%36,000562,894
20110.00%36,000598,894
201213.41%36,000720,033
201329.60%36,000979,819
201411.39%36,0001,131,521
2015-0.37%36,0001,163,202
20169.54%36,0001,313,605
201719.42%36,0001,611,699
2018-6.24%36,0001,544,882
201928.88%36,0002,037,441
202016.62%36,0002,418,047
202126.89%36,0003,113,941
2022-19.44%36,0002,537,592
202324.23%36,0003,197,174

Decided to use excel this time. In this second scenario, because you’re dumping so much money per year into stocks you end up within about $600,000 of the purchasing couple, but they STILL end up ahead. Another reminder that this time frame saw the most appreciation in stocks and real estate in known history. But again, even with the higher interest rate and extra mortgage insurance fees, the purchasing couple still ended up ahead of the renter couple, even with their prudent savings and investing plan. Many people also don’t know how to buy and hold when it comes to stocks and most retail investors underperform the market, as well as many professional investors, so this is an extremely optimistic ROI in the stock portfolio. Meanwhile getting someone to move their home is a much more arduous process and a more illiquid asset, but this is a benefit in a way because it means that you give the asset the proper amount of time it needs to appreciate in value.

So now we’ve seen both scenarios, and both point to the fact that purchasing a home has been the better way to build wealth in Canada in the past 2 decades. Will this be the same in the future? As mentioned many economist are predicting that the real estate market will not see the same returns as the past. But I still believe that due to the ability to leverage your money so highly, with the asset class being relatively stable (for now), makes it a great way to build wealth, and the ability to repeat the process with multiple properties provides growth that you simply won’t be able to duplicate in the stock market. You’re fundamentally limited by one income, but by being a landlord you are dumping many incomes into this investment idea.

Now there is an amount of stress to having that much leverage on your shoulders, if your home value drops 20% and you need to sell you won’t be able to get your down payment out. But just writing those words down unless you buy at the absolute peak and overextend yourself like crazy and lose your job at the same time, a 20% drop is an EXTREMELY uncommon occurrence in our real estate market, in stocks however, there were multiple 20% drops in that 25 year time frame, again psychologically, can be a hard time to sit there and watch your returns on paper take a nosedive. But no one really knows the day to day value of their house and even if the markets having a bad year most people aren’t going to jump to the conclusion that they need to sell.

There is one small dent in this math, and that’s condominiums. Condos have seen much more muted appreciation over the past 25 years compared to freehold housing types, the shift has been very pronounced in the post-covid years with a condo oversupply on the market and a lot of new condo inventory coming online at this moment in time. The price recovery in condos is going to be much slower than freehold but they did still appreciate at about 5-6% per year. So if we assumed a condo buyer vs. a condo renter, the numbers might be somewhat different. But if a condo is solely an investment property for you, it’s still likely that you’ll see good returns in the long run.

Newsletter Email Archive Sent: Nov 26, 2024:

Newsletter #26: Thought Experiment of Real Estate Investing vs. Stocks, US Market News

This Weeks Blog Post:

Investing $100,000 in stocks vs. Real Estate 25 years ago:

  • This post is a discussion about leverage and how real estate is a somewhat unmatched way to leverage your money.
  • Two scenarios leveraging money to purchase real estate vs. stocks
  • Remember, past performance doesn’t predict future results

Read the full article here: https://oliverfoote.ca/investing-100000-in-stocks-vs-real-estate-25-years-ago/

Market Talk:

  • In case you missed it and wanted to hear my discussion with mortgage broker Deren Hasip I would highly recommend watching the video or listening to the podcast. We discuss the upcoming mortgage rule changes on Dec 15, 2024. How the US election may effect Canada. Some professional tips and tricks with mortgages. Examples of new rule changes on purchasing power for first time buyers.
  • YouTube: https://youtu.be/8XyHEV1c7R4
  • Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4vzu7YYs4SUBTTg1dILL22
  • The Canadian Dollar has been suffering a bit thanks to comments that Trump has made about tariffs on Canada. If that does happen there is the possibility that the Bank of Canada will be hesitant to drop mortgage rates and we may see inflation return. These are worst case scenarios and we can hope that not everything will come to pass from the new administration, but one this is for sure that there will be changes, likely economically.

Stock Market Performance as of Tuesday Nov 26, 2024:

S&P 500: 6,013.13 (+26.79% YTD)
NASDAQ: 19,136.73 (+29.60% YTD)
S&P/TSX Composite: 25,383.73 (+21.62% YTD)

Macroeconomics Statistics:

Canada’s CPI Inflation Sep 2024: 2.0% (0.4% Increase from Sept 2024)
Current BoC Benchmark Interest Rate: 3.75% (0.5% Decrease on Oct 23, 2024)
Unemployment Rate October 2024: 6.5% (0.1% Decrease from Sept 2024)

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) Real Estate Stats – October 2024:

YTD Average Selling Price: $1,121,871
YTD % Change in Average Selling Price: -1.0%
Y-o-Y (comparing Octobers) % Change in Average Selling Price: +1.1%

YTD Number of MLS Sales: 58,435
YTD % Change in MLS Sales: +0.1%

Y-o-Y (comparing Octobers) % Change in MLS Sales: +44.4%
Number of MLS Sales in October: 6,658
Y-o-Y (comparing Octobers) % Change in Active Listings: +25.3%
Number of Active Listings in October: 24,481

Inventory Available: 3.5 Months (Decrease from 5.0 Months in Sept 2024)

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Can You Time The Market(s)?

Update Dec 14, 2024: Added Newsletter Email Archive at End of Post.

This is an interesting question. In the current day as of November 2024 the Toronto Real Estate Market looks like it’s in of the best times to buy in decades. It’s been a buyers market for a few months and with rates coming down I don’t expect this to last much longer with signs pointing towards Spring 2025 being a sellers market again. But this begs the question, are you able to time the market? Many people say you shouldn’t bother trying, and honestly I mostly agree with that sentiment, especially with something like real estate that is an illiquid asset. If you plan a purchase or sale of real estate down to the day or week, your plan will likely fall apart pretty quickly. Real estate is unlike the stock market; where you can sell and find a buyer same day. You need to build in some timeline flexibility and think about an investment in real estate on the scale of decades and not just months or years.

However, even though we should be using long time horizons when thinking about any type of investing, is there a way to time the market? Now you know that since I’m writing a post about timing the market, my goal is likely to tell you that there is a way to do so. But that it’s not the only thing you should be considering when investing. Most people move and purchase new homes simply because their lives are changing in some significant way, maybe a child is on the way, a divorce is happening, aging (comes for everyone), or some other big shift has caused a homeowner to have to change their living situation. If this is you, and life is forcing you to make a change, there’s really not a lot to be gained from trying to time the market in search of a profit. But there is something to be lost with bad timing. I would suggest trying to time your move in such a way where you are buying and selling into similar market economics.

Essentially, try to time your move when things are relatively stable and there aren’t likely to be huge rate cuts or rate increases like we are seeing now. Many people sold in April 2020 after being laid off, simply to find that if they had decided to hold on just a few more months they may have been able to get much more money for their home. Of course sometimes a crisis is a crisis and there’s not much you can do. But selling during high volatility and then hoping to repurchase in a few months could lead to some nasty surprises. A real estate market can change very quickly. For example April 2020 was a buyers market and prices were plummeting while April 2021 was a sellers market and prices were going to the moon, just 1 year apart. People often forget that a house, while often their biggest asset, is also a place to live which can lead to different priorities than investors. The story if you’re a real estate investor can be quite different.

Investing in real estate for the purposes of turning a profit (as with any business venture) relies a bit more on timing than my discussion about a primary residence. For example, this past year was an absolute generational time to invest in real estate, so much inventory to choose from, many sellers willing to negotiate, if you throw in enough lowball offers some sellers were actually willing to bite, not a chance of doing that even a year ago. With rates coming down people will begin returning to the market relatively quickly, but there will still be a short period of time maybe a couple months with lots of supply available while people who have been waiting on the sidelines begin to realize that their buying power has improved significantly.

From a strategy point of view, I’ve been telling people to take open or variable rate mortgages for the past year or so because with inflation coming down steadily and the Bank of Canada making it clear that they will be cutting interest rates, taking a variable or open mortgage can allow an investor to get into a house, albeit maybe a bit heavy on the monthly payments when your first buy. But as rates come down you can lock in a much lower fixed rate, or even break your variable mortgage and pay the penalty when you think the time is right in order to get a significant discount on your monthly payment. It’s a bit of short-term pain that could pay off hugely.

I’m certain that there are investors out there who have been doing this exact strategy, and you’ll hear a lot about them in a year or two once they’ve locked in a lower rate and had their home equity increase like crazy with the return of the sellers market I’m expecting in 2025. This type of principle of buying when rates are high but anticipated to come down is not anything crazy fancy or sophisticated, you just need to have a plan of action, confidence that your projections will be correct (it helps if you read up on these things and know a bit about how markets and economies work) and have the means and people available to you in order to execute this kind of plan.

The layers of complication of real estate investing can go very deep and I’ve written some posts on the topic before, but I think that a lot of people overcomplicate things for themselves and get in their own way maybe due to uncertainty, or lack of education, or an information overload. Talk to investors, learn from them, and try doing it yourself. Learn, ask questions, do it yourself. Repeat. As with anything in life it is important to take calculated risks if you want to earn some kind of reward. If you think about it, spending 4 years (or more) of your life at a university is also a calculated risk, it costs lots of money and lots of time where you could have been working instead. But the thinking is that once you exit your university degree you will be more employable and be able to get a higher paying job than if you had the equivalent 4 year experience learning a trade or some other skill.

Real estate works the same way, the risk will likely have some kind of future pay off in 5+ years when you go to sell. Generally Canadian real estate purchased in good, growing areas has been worth the risk. In investing time is your best friend. The longer your time horizon, generally, the higher the likelihood that your investment will work out. Same goes for education, following the same example as before. In todays era everyone has a Bachelors Degree. So often you can’t do much with it and you’ll have to dedicate a further 2 years and more money in order to get your masters, at which point you may learn enough practical skills to be employable. Some people may even choose to do a PhD. So really the time commitment is quite a bit longer than it originally seemed, but the longer you commit to the concept of schooling, or holding your investment, the bigger the payoff tends to be. Real estate investing nowadays works in a similar way, the “arbitrage” opportunities of the market are much harder to find these days with the flow of information out there, and getting a positively cash flowing asset from the day you buy real estate just doesn’t happen anymore, so you have to build that into your plan and find a way to make the asset work for you. Not sure how I managed to draw a comparison between education and being a real estate investor, but I guess apples and oranges can in-fact be compared.

A general rule of thumb when you are buying an investment is buying with a 5+ year time horizon. If you’re buying something because you think that some event in the next week will make your penny stock take off and go to the moon, you’ve been sadly misled and will likely have to learn some lessons the hard way (like I did). Real estate works similarly; there have been times in the Toronto real estate market if you bought and then sold 2 or 3 years later you would have lost money. But if you take almost any 10-year time period in the history of the Toronto real estate market. Even if you bought at what was thought to be the absolute highest peak in history and you feel like an absolute idiot for doing so, 10 years later, without fail, you will have made a positive return on investment (the US stock market tells a similar story).

The elephant in the room is inflation, so even if you “made money” it’s possible that on inflation adjusted terms you still lost money, but even that scenario is EXTREMELY unlikely in a 10-year time horizon. BUY AND HOLD. The most important 3 words in investing. Do whatever you possibly can to avoid selling an asset that is expected to make you money. Especially if you’re trading it for something (like a car) that will cost you money. Obviously there are times where selling an investment is a good idea. Such as if you find another, better investing opportunity.

As mentioned a bit earlier, this post isn’t going to have any earth shattering, super secret, never heard before method of investing. This post is more about the philosophy that I believe in when it comes to investing. One of the most important principles that people often forget about when investing and budgeting is “pay yourself first”. The first line in your budget MUST be savings. If you are not saving a penny from your work, no matter how prestigious or not the work is, one day you’ll get old and maybe want to, at the very least, work a bit less. The only way that I’m aware of maintaining a lifestyle without working is by very diligently saving and investing, you must be selfish for the good of your future self. I am genuinely scared for people who spend everything they make, especially when it’s just “stuff”. Who cares about the car you drive, or what brands of clothes you wear. If you’re spending all your money to keep up an image you can’t afford, you may have slightly nicer things for a while, but you’ll end up in the same place as the next guy, broke.

I think sometimes my views on this savings thing are a bit extreme and there is something to an abundance mindset and viewing money as something fluid and obtainable. But there’s also truth to a dollar saved is a dollar earned and being prudent while you have the ability to work and save money, to ensure that saving is something you’re prioritizing, the time when you’ll probably be spending the most money is when you’re old, getting old is expensive. That being said, you don’t have to completely deprive yourself of fun and joy, just find ways to do it cheaply, honestly camping, hiking, and backpacking have been some of the best experiences of my life. This summer I finally took a bit of money and went on a vacation, which I’ll remember forever, it was absolutely incredible. But I still did it without breaking the bank. Hostels, discount airlines, grocery stores, no buying souvenirs that end up desolate in a box somewhere a year later. Took lots of pictures on the phone I already own (free!), went to free attractions, used and abused student discounts. You can have amazing experiences, without breaking the bank and still save aggressively. As another example, lets say you’re going out somewhere downtown, why not pick up some drinks from the liquor store beforehand, drink at home then go out so you don’t have to buy out the whole bar when you get there. Then wake up the next morning regretting your choices and come home with a $100 on top of it. Naturally, the best way to save money on alcohol is to not drink alcohol, but I’m not here to ruin your fun.

My last bit of investing advice is the classic, buy when other people are selling and sell when times are good, that is the wisdom of the markets. When times are good it’s easy to think they’ll last forever, if you plan to hold on for decades the best advice is to not touch your investments at all. If you are slightly more active and want to be smart about when to allocate funds it’s not a bad idea to increase cash (sell) as markets are going up so you can take advantage of those opportunities in a down market. Another method to have gain access to more opportunities is to simply keep your expenses very low, and find a way to make a (comparatively) high income so that you have good “cash flow”. I’m not a fan of ever selling investments, so if you’re able to keep buying in any market, you’ll generally be a net winner. However, as I’m learning, anything that results in a good income also comes with a lot of stress and hard work. Being successful is not easy, don’t let the internet and stories of people hitting it big make you think it’s easy. There’s always a component of luck, but there’s also a much bigger component of being opportunistic and taking full advantage of an opportunity when maybe an average person would let it slip. 95% execution 5% luck, getting that much luck is a great ratio. Anyway, that’s all I have time for this week hope you found this insight into how I think interesting or useful. As always thank you for reading and remember.

Keep Investing,

-Oliver

Newsletter Email Archive Sent: November 11, 2024

Newsletter #25: Real Estate Returns, Should You Time Markets?

This Weeks Blog Post:

Can You Time the Markets?:

  • Should you bother timing the market? The answer is: it depends.
  • My philosophy on saving money and investing and why you should always be saving.
  • Talk about market wisdom and how time is your best friend in investing.

Read the full article here: https://oliverfoote.ca/can-you-time-the-markets/

Real Estate Market Talk:

Greater Toronto Area home sales have picked-up this past October with a strong year-over year increase.  There were 6,658 home sales through TRREB’s System in October 2024, up by 44.4% per cent compared to 4,611 sales reported in October 2023.  The pace of which homes are selling also increased with inventory levels of available homes for sale of all types dropping to 3.5 months from just over 5.  This is a significant drop as the market is now trending back towards a sellers market.  

Even with the pace at which homes are selling, prices remained relatively flat, up only 1.1% compared to October of last year to $1,135,215 and up slightly compared to this past September.  The numbers tell us that it appears more buyers have moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October. The positive affordability brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices, prompted an improvement in market activity.

Chief Market Analyst for the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, Jason Mercer, reported that market conditions did tighten in October but there is still a lot of inventory, over 24,400 of available homes of all types, and therefore providing choice for home buyers. This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed, selling price growth will accelerate, most likely as we move through the spring of 2025.

The condominium market also saw a rebound in October with sales up 33% across the GTA compared to October 2023.  Prices, however, still softened slightly, down 2% respectively. With the completion of a large number of new construction units over the next couple of years, prices are expected to stay relatively flat for the time being.  

Please never hesitate to reach out to me with any of your real estate related questions, I am here to help.  Enjoy the fall season and I look forward to connecting with you soon.  

Stock Market Performance as of Friday November 8, 2024:

S&P 500: 5,995.54 (+26.41% YTD)
NASDAQ: 19,286.78 (+30.62% YTD)
S&P/TSX Composite: 24,759.40 (+18.62% YTD)

Macroeconomics Statistics:

Canada’s CPI Inflation Sep 2024: 1.6% (0.4% Decrease from August 2024)
Current BoC Benchmark Interest Rate: 3.75% (0.5% Decrease on Oct 23, 2024)
Unemployment Rate August 2024: 6.6% (0.2% Increase from July 2024)

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) Real Estate Stats – October 2024:

YTD Average Selling Price: $1,121,871
YTD % Change in Average Selling Price: -1.0%
Y-o-Y (comparing Octobers) % Change in Average Selling Price: +1.1%

YTD Number of MLS Sales: 58,435
YTD % Change in MLS Sales: +0.1%
Number of MLS Sales in October: 6,658

Y-o-Y (comparing Octobers) % Change in MLS Sales: +44.4%
Number of Active Listings in October: 24,481
Y-o-Y (comparing Octobers) % Change in Active Listings: +25.3%

Inventory Available: 3.5 Months (Decrease from 5.0 Months in Sept 2024)

Hope you have an amazing week! Chat soon!

Keep Investing,
Oliver Foote

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